To help participants visualise and discuss a range of possible, plausible, probable, and preferable futures for a given challenge or innovation.

The Future Cone is a visual and participatory tool used in foresight and innovation processes. It illustrates how the future expands from the present, encompassing multiple potential pathways rather than a single, predetermined outcome. By mapping different types of futures—possible, plausible, probable, and preferable—participants are encouraged to think beyond “business as usual” and consider both risks and opportunities.

1. Define the focus:
   Clarify the topic, challenge, or system to be explored (e.g., the future of advisory services, climate adaptation in farming, digitalisation in AKIS).

2. Draw the cone:
   On a large sheet or whiteboard, draw a cone shape with its tip at the present and expanding outward into the future. Divide the cone into zones for:

   • Possible futures (everything that could happen)
   • Plausible futures (what could realistically happen)
   • Probable futures (what is likely to happen)
   • Preferable futures (what you want to happen)

3. Populate the cone:
   Invite participants to brainstorm and write down events, trends, innovations, or scenarios on sticky notes. Place each note in the appropriate zone of the cone.

4. Discuss and reflect:
   Facilitate a discussion about the implications of each future, the assumptions behind them, and what actions could move the system towards preferable outcomes.

5. Capture insights:
   Photograph or digitise the completed cone for documentation and follow-up. Summarise key insights and action points.

Phases of the Innovation Spiral:

• Inspiration: Use the Future Cone to spark new ideas and surface emerging trends or uncertainties.
• Planning: Identify which futures are most relevant or desirable, and plan actions accordingly.
• Development: Stress-test innovations or interventions against a range of future scenarios.
• Realisation: Monitor signals of change and adapt strategies as the future unfolds.

Benefits:

• Encourages long-term, systemic thinking
• Surfaces assumptions and blind spots
• Supports robust, flexible planning
• Fosters creativity and engagement

Tips:

• Use the cone as a living tool—update it as new information emerges.
• Combine with other methods (e.g., stakeholder mapping, storytelling) for richer insights.
• Adapt the time horizon and zones to fit your context.

• Large paper or whiteboard
• Markers
• Sticky notes (in different colours for each zone, if desired)
• Camera or phone for documentation